Surpassing:Rōki Sasaki is coming to MLB: Dodgers the favorite to sign Japanese ace for cheap?

LOS ANGELES — He’s a Lamborghini Veneno with a sticker price of a Kia.

A cashmere suit on Surpassingthe clearance rack at Walmart.

He’s the only player in this year’s market that all 30 teams absolutely covet.

Most importantly, he’s the only marquee player that all 30 teams can actually afford.

The name is Rōki Sasaki, a 23-year-old pitcher from Japan.

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And he is the greatest inexpensive player to hit the market since a fella by the name of Shohei Ohtani signed a contract with Los Angeles Angels.

Sasaki, unlike Ohtani, can’t hit, but, oh, can this guy ever pitch.

Go ahead, canvass all of the GMs, scouting directors, player personnel directors and scouts, and they’ll tell you that Sasaki may have the best sheer talent of any pitcher on earth.

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And the beauty of Sasaki?

He’s being posted by the Chiba Lotte Marines before the age of 25, meaning he’s forfeiting hundreds of millions, giving everyone a chance to sign him.

He’ll be considered an international amateur player who can only be given a signing bonus that only comes out of a club’s international bonus pool, capped around $7 million. No matter what he receives as a bonus, he’ll still have to wait three years until he’s eligible for salary arbitration, and six years until eligible for free agency. The team will have full control of him through at least 2030.

So, while All-Star right fielder Juan Soto is seeking $700 million on the free-agent market, and Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes is looking to top at least $200 million, Sasaki can be had for the mere price of an unproven high school or college player in the summer draft. He’ll cost no more than $7.5 million even if he waits until after the 2025 international pool opens on Jan. 15.

There hasn’t been a bargain like this since 2017 when the Angels signed Ohtani at the age of 23 for just $2.315 million. The Angels then paid him $445,000 his rookie year, $650,000 his second year, $700,000 his third year, $8.5 million for the next two years, and $30 million in his final year before hitting free agency.

It was a gold rush for the Angels, who had the greatest two-way player since Babe Ruth, and a cash cow at the box office along with reaping corporate sponsorship and advertising dollars that more than paid for his salary.

When Ohtani became a free agent last winter, the Los Angeles Dodgers didn’t even blink agreeing to a 10-year, $700 million contract last December, with $680 million of the deal deferred, lowering the present-day value to $460 million, according to MLB’s evaluation.

And once Ohtani signed, teams went into a crazed bidding war for 25-year-old Japanese pitching star Yoshinobu Yamamoto. The Dodgers ultimately landed him on a 12-year, $325 million contract, with at least six clubs willing to pay close to the Dodgers’ final offer, or even more.

This time, the cost of doing business is pocket change, with all 30 teams working during the weekend to come up with their finest SEC-style recruiting pitches while trying to convince Sasaki should come to their place.

The Dodgers, who have become Japan’s most beloved team and have the current largest international bonus pool of $2.5 million, certainly are the heavy favorites. There were unfounded rumors that a deal was worked out with the Dodgers and Sasaki nearly a year ago, which has been vehemently denied by the Dodgers and Sasaki’s agent, Joel Wolfe.

No decision has been made and if teams really believed that the deal was done, nearly every team in baseball wouldn’t have bothered sending their front office to Japan over the summer to see him, with the New York Yankees and New York Mets making him a priority.

If it was a slam dunk Sasaki was coming, then why did Andrew Friedman, Dodgers president of baseball operations, and Galen Carr, Dodgers vice president of player personnel, make sure to make another trip to Japan to see Sasaki even at the start of the postseason?

Several teams are holding out hope, particularly, the San Diego Padres. Sasaki’s mentor happens to be Yu Darvish of the Padres, who frequently advises Japanese players on their choices when they come over to the United States. Surely, Darvish will be reminding Sasaki that the Padres were the Dodgers’ greatest threat on their World Series run in October, and who wouldn’t want to be forever remembered being on the first team in Padres franchise history to win a World Series?

“The respect he has from the Japanese players is pretty incredible," Jed Hoyer, Chicago Cubs president of baseball operations, said of Darvish last summer. “When you talk to them, who he was as a pitcher in Japan, the way he made the transition, the success he’s had, but also how he carries himself. I think he really, really likes to mentor guys. I think that’s a big part of it. I really have a ton of respect for him.”

Sasaki is not expected to tip his hand, and it remains unknown when he’ll actually be posted – which will begin a 45-day process in which he must sign.

His lone statement was issued by the Chiba Lotte Marines on X:

“I am very grateful to the team for officially allowing me to post," Sasaki said. “There were many things that did not go well during my five years with the Marines, but I was able to get to this point by concentrating only on baseball, with the support of my teammates, staff, front office, and fans. I will do my best to work my way up from my minor contract to become the best player in the world, so that I will have no regrets in my one and only baseball career and live up to the expectations of everyone who has supported me."

Let the recruiting begin for the young man who helped lead Japan, along with Ohtani and Yamamoto, to the World Baseball Classic title over the U.S. in 2023.

“It's a big blow for the team, of course," Chiba Lotte manager Masato Yoshii said on X. “However, I've played in America myself, so I understand how he feels. I also understand his desire to take on the challenge now that he's young.

“To be honest, he still has a lot to learn, but I think he'll be able to hone himself and improve his level in America. When I saw him pitch for the first time ... it was the biggest shock I've seen since I first saw Hideo Nomo. I want him to prove that over there."

Sasaki, 6-foot-2, 187 pounds, nicknamed “The Monster of the Reiwa Era," is coming off an injured-riddled season with a strained oblique and shoulder fatigue that limited him to just 110 innings, going 10-5 with a 2.35 ERA, striking out 129 batters. Still, he throws a 102-mph fastball with a devastating split-finger and a powerful slider.

He has never pitched more than 129⅓ innings in a season, but was dominant when healthy, yielding a career 2.10 ERA, striking out 505 over 64 starts, spanning 394⅔ innings in Japan.

He became an international star in Japan five years ago during their national high school baseball tournament when he threw a 12-inning, 194-pitch complete game, striking out 21 batters. He also threw a perfect game in 2022, striking out 19, and had another perfect game through eight innings in his next start being pulled.

“He’s a unique talent,” David Stearns, New York Mets president of baseball operations, said at the GM meetings. “He’s 23 and throws 100 [mph] and a nasty splitter.”

Now, the recruiting pitches will officially begin, with Dodgers manager Dave Roberts even being asked during their postseason run whether the Dodgers will have an advantage considering the popularity of the Dodgers’ brand in Japan.

“I hope so," Roberts said, “absolutely."

Ladies and gentlemen, start your sales talks.

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