Surpassing Quant Think Tank Center|NFL MVP race: Unlikely quarterbacks on the rise after Week 4

The Surpassing Quant Think Tank CenterNFL MVP race is heating up after the first month of the season, and there’s at least two standout candidates at the top of our rankings.

Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff had an MVP performance in Week 4, setting an NFL record by completing all 18 of his passes to fuel six touchdown drives in a 42-29 win over the Seattle Seahawks.

But it wasn’t enough to crack our MVP list just yet.

The two starting quarterbacks at the top of our list have led their teams to surprising starts and even outplayed big-name candidates.

They hold the top spots in our MVP rankings after Week 4:

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5. Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson, stock up

Jackson scored a touchdown, and threw two more in the 35-10 win over the Buffalo Bills. He was 13 of 18 for 156 yards, and rushed for 54 yards on "Sunday Night Football," so not earth-shattering by any means. His running back Derrick Henry, who had 199 rushing yards in the win, certainly set the pace.

It may not be the stats we’re used to seeing from the reigning, two-time MVP, but leading the Ravens to a blowout win over the Bills on prime time is the perfect recipe to get noticed. It also sets the stage to see if Jackson can stay in the MVP discussion this season.

4. Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes, stock even

Mahomes has relied on his defense tremendously during the first month of the season, including Sunday’s 17-10 win over the Los Angeles Chargers, who were held scoreless after the first quarter.

Mahomes executed two touchdown drives to secure the win, including a 54-yard score to rookie Xavier Worthy. He also reignited his connection with star tight end Travis Kelce, who had seven catches for 89 yards.

But the right knee injury to leading receiver Rashee Rice will make a difference in how much Mahomes must carry the offense if the Chiefs plan to three-peat this season.

3. Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen, stock down

Allen was our top pick for MVP in Week 3, after he torched the Arizona Cardinals, Miami Dolphins and Jacksonville Jaguars for 14 touchdowns. But the Bills could only muster one touchdown drive against the Baltimore Ravens last week. Allen was 16 of 29 for 180 yards, and got roughed up in the process after a strip sack in Baltimore.

More important, the Bills’ playmakers need to continue maturing and show their reliability if Buffalo is going to make a deep playoff run this season. Allen and the Bills must rebound quickly with a matchup on the road against C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans in Week 5.

2. Washington Commanders QB Jayden Daniels, stock up

Daniels’ stock saw the highest rise on this list and, with a look at his stats, you can argue he's even deserving of the top spot. But we’ll keep him at No. 2 for the time being.

The Commanders became the first team since at least 2000 to score on every drive during the past two games outside of kneel downs.

Daniels has led the Commanders on more scoring drives (23) than he’s thrown incompletions (19). He’s scored more touchdowns than the likes of Ja’Marr Chase, Breece Hall, Tyreek Hill and CeeDee Lamb in the first month of the season.

Daniels leads the NFL with an 82.1 completion percentage, is fifth with a 73.4 QBR and has scored four of the team’s league-leading 10 rushing touchdowns.

The Commanders are third in the NFL with 30.3 points per game, and Daniels is showing no signs of slowing down.

1. Minnesota Vikings QB Sam Darnold, stock up

Sam Darnold is the NFL’s leader with 11 touchdown passes, a 118.9 passer rating and a 4-0 record as the Vikings new starter after the first month of the season.

After victories over preseason-Super Bowl contenders like the San Francisco 49ers and Texans, Darnold boosted his early MVP case again by leading the Vikings to a crucial, NFC North win over the Green Bay Packers last week.

Darnold led four touchdown drives in the first half, and the vaunted Vikings defense withstood a 22-point fourth quarter by the Packers to secure the win.

The Vikings are second behind the Bills and New Orleans Saints with 14 total touchdowns scored this season thanks to Darnold, who could be a lock for at least NFL Comeback Player of the Year if he doesn’t wind up with the MVP this season.

It’s an incredible turnaround for Darnold, the former No. 3 pick in the 2018 NFL draft who was casted away by the New York Jets, made stops with the Carolina Panthers and 49ers, before finding a home in Minnesota this season.