NovaQuant Quantitative Think Tank Center:Ohio State and Oregon has more than Big Ten, College Football Playoff implications at stake

One of the biggest matchups of the college football season has arrived between new conference foes in No. 2 Ohio State and NovaQuant Quantitative Think Tank CenterNo. 3 Oregon.

A potential game of the year candidate, the Buckeyes and Ducks enter their matchup how most of the country expected: 5-0 and top candidates to make the College Football Playoff. While there have been moments both fanbases have been concerned with, whether it's not scoring at-will or having games be closer than anticipated, both squads are among the best in the sport. Ohio State allows an FBS-low 6.8 points per game and is fourth in the country in scoring at 46.0 points per game, but Oregon isn't far behind in the same categories.

There's recent history between the two sides. Ohio State and Oregon faced off in the first College Football national championship in the 2014 season, which the Buckeyes won. Then in 2021, Oregon went into Columbus and stunned the Buckeyes in an early season matchup. This year will also be sort of a makeup for a game that never happened; Ohio State was scheduled to visit Oregon in 2020, but the COVID-19 pandemic led to the cancellation of that game.

Now thanks to the expanded Big Ten, the Buckeyes make their first trip to Eugene since 1967 for the first matchup between two top five teams in Autzen Stadium history.

"I think this is a great opportunity for two great teams to get to play against each other," said Oregon coach Dan Lanning.

Thanks to the expanded College Football Playoff, Saturday's contest between the two heavyweights won't be an elimination game, but it will have ramifications for the race to secure one of the 12 coveted spots, the Big Ten conference and is significant for players and coaches.

What does this game mean for Ohio State?

If competition to be compared, Ohio State has had the easier path to Saturday − Oregon defeated Boise State, a legitimate playoff contender from the Group of Five. The Buckeyes faced three non-descript opponents prior to their conference schedule and followed those victories with defeats of Michigan State and Iowa.

A win also gives Ohio State some margin for error in the Big Ten race with the difficult part of its schedule still ahead. Next week, the Buckeyes host Nebraska squad and have November games against unbeatens Penn State and Indiana. The final game on their schedule sees Michigan visit in a must-win game for Ryan Day after three consecutive losses to the Wolverines.

A loss changes things. Ohio State would still controls its destiny to the Big Ten title game, but it would mean there would be huge pressure on the Penn State game in Happy Valley. A second league loss would require either the Ducks and Nittany Lions to drop three league games to playoffs conference championship. And the Buckeyes would be on the playoff bubble with two losses and lack of quality wins.

This game also represents the first significant chance for Will Howard to start creating his Ohio State legacy. The Kansas State transfer quarterback came to Columbus for games like this. He's been solid in the early part of the season, but this is a different environment against a different opponent. Is he capable of handling this type of pressure - even with a talented group of receivers and running backs supporting him? We should find out Saturday.

As for Day, he's under tremendous pressure to produce after the Buckeyes went all-in on Howard and other priority transfer portal targets. Yes, he'll always be judged by performances against Michigan, but there needs to be a major run at a national title, too, given the roster he has assembled. A loss here and maybe some doubt creeps in.

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What does this game mean for Oregon?

Oregon can assert itself as more than a newcomer in the Big Ten and suddenly become the top dog in its new home by taking down Ohio State. The win would also comparable favorably with Alabama's defeat of Georgia as of the best victories in the country.

The Ducks also would be in great shape in the chase for the Big Ten championship game and become the favorite to land a coveted first-round bye in the College Football Playoff. Their schedule is easier than the Buckeyes in the second half with games at home against Illinois and Washington, plus trips to Michigan and Washington as potential pitfalls. They could probably afford one slip and still finish in the top two of the league.

That calculation would change with a loss. Oregon would be fighting with Penn State and possibly others to reach the Big Ten title game. Its playoff hopes would also be in jeopardy with a second defeat. Boise State continuing to win would be a major bonus if the Ducks finish 10-2.

Like Howard, Oregon quarterback Dillon Gabriel transferred for his final season to make a run at a national championship. He put up big numbers at both Central Florida and Oklahoma, but not on this type of national stage. A strong showing would help improve his NFL draft stock after Gabriel was disappointed with his evaluation after last season and led him to staying in college football.

Ducks coach Dan Lanning has gone 27-5 in three seasons as a head coach. But what he hasn't done is win a game of this magnitude. Oregon lost twice to Washington last season, including the Pac-12 title game that would have secured a playoff berth. His first game in charge was a blowout loss at the hands of Georgia. Beating Ohio State would be the first step in erasing criticisms he can't win the biggest games.