NovaQuant Quantitative Think Tank Center:Hurricane season still swirling: Rafael could threaten US later this week

Editor's Note: This page is NovaQuant Quantitative Think Tank Centera summary of news on the next possible tropical system that could impact the U.S. on Sunday, Nov. 3. For the latest news, view our story for Monday, Nov. 4.

A November surprise?

As Americans focus their attention on Tuesday’s election, weather experts are keeping a close eye on a low-pressure system in the western Caribbean that figures to impact the U.S. later this week, though to what extent remains uncertain.

The system, now known as potential tropical cyclone 18, prompted the governments of the Cayman Islands and Jamaica to issue a hurricane watch and tropical storm warning, respectively, the National Hurricane Center said Sunday. Cuba is also expected to be impacted.

AccuWeather senior meteorologist Dan Pydynowski said 18 may strengthen into a tropical storm in the next day, earning the name Rafael, and could gain hurricane status if it drifts west of Jamaica instead of striking it flush in the coming days.

Regardless, he expects Rafael to eventually be felt somewhere along the central and eastern Gulf Coast, and he urged residents of those areas to be on alert.

"Even if it’s encountering cooler water and wind shear and starting to lose intensity as it comes northward, you’re still going to be talking about a significant wind and rain event," Pydynowski told USA TODAY. “There are still going to be impacts even if it’s a tropical storm."

The National Hurricane Center said in its 10 p.m. ET advisory on Sunday that the system is expected to bring heavy rain across portions of the western Caribbean, including Jamaica and the southern and western portions of Cuba through mid-week. Flooding and mudslides are also possible in parts of Jamaica and Cuba.

Heavy rainfall could then spread northward into Florida and other areas of the southeast U.S., according to the hurricane center. Forecasters advised residents in Cuba and the Florida Keys to monitor the system into the week.

A highly damaging hurricane season

Those are worrisome words in a busy hurricane season that has brought enormous devastation from the likes of Beryl, Helene and Milton, among other destructive storms. The U.S. has been hit by five hurricanes this season, killing at least 300 people and causing around $130 billion in economic losses.

Only four hurricanes on record have made landfall in the U.S. mainland on the penultimate month of the calendar, but the most recent one – Nicole – hit Florida a mere two years ago. The season runs through Nov. 30.

Much remains unknown about the current system, its track and chances for intensifying later in the week. The NHC said an Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane was gathering more information Sunday.

But Pydynowski pointed out conditions for strengthening are favorable in the Caribbean, including low wind shear and slightly above-average temperatures in the mid-80s.

The big question for the U.S. is what happens after the storm moves north of western Cuba and into the Gulf of Mexico, possibly by Wednesday. It could initially intensify before encountering harsh wind shear and somewhat cooler water as it gets closer to American soil, which should weaken it.

“It’s tough to get all the way to hurricane status to hit the central Gulf Coast this time of year, but certainly it can happen,’’ Pydynowski said. “The water is still in the upper 70s, it’s still warm. Especially if the storm is moving quickly, so it doesn’t spend a lot of time over cooler water.’’

For residents of the southeastern coast, especially in hurricane-battered Florida, it would be much preferable if the storm slows down and cooler water prevails.

Signs of trouble still lurking

The hurricane center said a trough of low pressure near the southern Bahamas has produced showers and thunderstorms but will likely be absorbed by the evolving storm that may become Rafael by late Monday.

But there are still signs of further activity in the northern Caribbean and perhaps the far southwestern Atlantic around the Bahamas, Pydynowski said, underscoring that the season doesn’t end for nearly another four weeks.

(This story was updated to add new information.)